The beginning of the end for diesel?
Figures released this month by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show that sales of diesel cars dropped by an astonishing 219,309 in 2017 – a decline of 17.1 per cent.
But does this mean the end is nigh for vehicles that sip from the black pump – and is this necessarily a good thing, especially given car manufacturers have air quality and emissions targets to reach by 2021, in which low-emission diesel engines have so far played a strategic part?
There’s no mistaking that hyperbole surrounding the premise of ‘dirty diesel’ has played a role in the fuel’s rapid demise, not least since Environment Secretary Michael Gove outlined the government’s plans to ban the sale of petrol or diesel-only cars from 2040 onwards – a move that has prompted a wholesale rethink among buyers as to the type of vehicle they may choose. Within that announcement, older diesel models in particular were decried for their high emissions, but the message seems to have been translated to affect all diesel cars.
In many ways, the reaction is a knee-jerk one. After all, 22 years from now, when the petrol and diesel ban kicks in, most of the cars that will be bought and sold in 2018 will have served a full life and have been scrapped already. Yet despite this, the move has seen sales of alternatively-fuelled cars surge forward in a similar period.
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UK Leads Plug-in charge
In the UK, we buy more plug-in cars than anywhere other European market, while in 2017 demand for such vehicles grew by almost 25 per cent, contributing to an overall growth of 34.8 per cent in the market for alternatively-fuelled vehicles, which includes hybrids and gas-powered vehicles.
Some of this growth is in direct response to replacing diesel, but it also shows an encouraging and growing acceptance of such technologies among motorists, as plug-in hybrids and range extenders offer the day-to-day benefits of pure electric cars without the issue of range anxiety.
Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said: “Consumers should be encouraged to buy the right car for their lifestyle and driving needs irrespective of fuel type – whether that be petrol, electric, hybrid or diesel as it could save them money.”
Indeed, with media hyperbole and government-fed soundbites placing poor air quality issues firmly at the feet of ‘dirty diesels’, there was actually a rise in carbon emissions from new cars in 2017, for the first time since CO2-based taxation was introduced in 2001.
Blind alley?
The reason for this is simply that diesels tend to emit fewer carbon particulates than similar petrol models, something that Hawes believes could be steering the industry down a blind alley.
“Falling business and consumer confidence is taking a toll, and confusing anti-diesel messages have caused many to hesitate before buying a new low emission diesel car,” he said. “Diesel cars, due to their greater fuel efficiency, typically emit on average 20% less CO2 than the equivalent performance of a petrol-engined vehicle. It’s disappointing, therefore, to see these advances undermined by the backlash against cleaner, low emission diesels, with the recent drop in sales the prime cause of this increase in CO2 emissions.”
“New technologies, including the latest low emission diesels, are vital if the country and the industry are to meet their climate change targets.”
Incentives
As we head into 2018, then, the industry looks set to see even further change. Most new cars introduced this year will include an AFV of some sort, be it a mild hybrid, full hybrid or plug-in, while electric power is surging ahead as the fuel of choice for urban commercial vehicles and buses – a sector that will provoke better air quality improvements in the short-term than the new car market ever will.
Consumers, meanwhile, remain confused. Diesel isn’t dead. It won’t be for a while yet, and some analysts are predicting that it may well see a small rise in popularity in 2018, as consumers realise that there are still benefits to be had from running such a vehicle. Their sales are likely to be incentivised, too, as they remain the best way for car manufacturers to keep their CO2 emissions down, and that’s something they need to do to reach their emissions targets. But where the long-term outlook is concerned, the prognosis for diesel is not a good one.
“For the industry, hitting [those] goals will be extremely challenging and government must create the right policies and incentives to encourage all low emission vehicles irrespective of fuel type,” added Hawes. “Whether that means battery vehicles, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen or petrol and diesel models.
“Fleet renewal is the fastest way to lower our carbon emissions and improve air quality and consumers should buy the right car for their driving needs.”
2017 sales in numbers
Total number of cars sold: 2,540,617
- Diesel – 1,065,879
- Petrol – 1,354,917
- AFV (Alternative Fuel Vehicles) – 119,821
Equivalent figures for 2016
- Diesel – 1,285,188 (-17.1%)
- Petrol – 1,318,707 (+0.05%)
- AFV (Alternative Fuel Vehicles) – 88,891 (+34.8%)
