Even with the demand for electric and hybrid cars increasing, the demand for fossil fuels including oil will only continue to rise according to BP.
The oil giant predicts that the rising prosperity of developing countries will continue to fuel demand for oil and gas, and claims that electric cars will not radically alter global demand.
Spencer Dale, chief economist for the BP group, said: “It’s not Teslas and the US. It’s the fact that 2 billion people, much of that in Asia, are moving to middle incomes, can buy their first motor car and that drives up oil demand. It’s that stuff that really matters.”
BP recently published its forecasts for long-term trends in energy demands and predict that by 2035, demand for energy worldwide will increase by close to a third.
Fossil fuels will still account for 75 per cent of that energy, which is slightly down on BP’s previous forecast of 80 per cent last year, but still an overwhelming majority.
Its predictions have been backed up by the International Energy Agency, which believes, like BP, that global demand for oil and other fossil fuels won’t peak until the mid 2040s.
However, separate data from analysts Wood Mackenzie and rival oil conglomerate Shell claim that it could peak as soon as five years’ time.
BP also claims that there’s still enough oil in the ground to meet the world’s current demands twice over until the middle of the century, though it’s the impact on the climate, not the amount of recoverable oil, which worries most experts.
The oil company said that improvements in energy efficiency and the development of lower carbon fuel mixes could slow global carbon emissions, but admits that it’s still not enough to prevent dangerous global warming.
BP has also come under fire for underestimating the growth of wind and solar power, with group including Greenpeace and Oil Change International accusing it of predicting a “fantasy future”.
Greg Muttitt, Oil Change International’s senior adviser, said: “Every year BP has predicted a slowdown in renewable energy growth, and every year it has been wrong – but it’s done so again today. And BP says electric cars are going nowhere in the next 20 years, a view not shared by the car industry.”
